黄瓜养殖基地！

我嘞个耶稣再临

发表于 Disqus：

今年6月份, 我朋友跟我讲了一个平台polymarket, 是一个“事件预测平台”

polymarket简介

点击展开

polymarket如何运作？

  1. 选择事件 如“GTA 6 会在2025年发售吗？”
  2. 交易“预测份额”
    • 每个选项(如“会”或“不会”)都有对应的价格($0.01 ~ $0.99), 代表市场认为它发生的概率
    • 如果你认为某件事会发生, 可以买入对应的份额; 如果认为不会, 可以卖出或选择相反选项
  3. 结果揭晓后结算
    • 正确的预测份额会变成 $1.00, 错误的变成 $0

核心特点

✔ 市场预测: 价格反映大众对事件的集体判断
✔ 透明机制: 基于区块链, 结果由去中心化系统判定
✔ 信息价值: 帮助人们更理性地看待未来可能性

简单来说, Polymarket 让用户用“交易”的方式 用真金白银(其实是稳定币)投票 表达对未来的看法, 而不是单纯猜测

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

我在6月份逛polymarket的时候, 发现有Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?的投票, 但是差距很悬殊, 买Yes的只占2.8%

这时我想的是, 显然 耶稣必然不可能return(致歉一切), 即使return了也会替我承受苦难(), 如果我买入No, 那么到年底结算的时候, 我会稳稳拿下2.8%的收益, 相当于年化5.6%

当然, 我不是赌狗, 出于对polymarket平台的不信任, 我并不会投很多钱进去. 我号上之后50usdt, 我抱着把这50usdt当做10万激进投资的人民币的心态去操作, 于是投入了10%在这个Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?上

Will Jesus Christ returns before GTA VI?

在我逛完上面那个之后, 我的乐子心态起来了, 就搜了一下Jesus, 就发现了这个Will Jesus Christ returns before GTA VI?, 当时6月份 投会return的有14%. 这个如果按当时gta6的发售日, 想想也跟年化14%差不多, 我也小买了点, 然后就不怎么关注了
到最近, 因为我上周六(11月8日)看了一下午法国历史, 也掺杂了一些别的欧洲历史, 就又看到宗教之类的东西了, 然后我就想起来Jesus returns这个盘, 然后我就上polymarket看了眼, 给我吓一跳

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?是1%, 但是Will Jesus Christ returns before GTA VI?已经五五开了

不对劲啊不对劲, 然后我翻评论区, 有叫着Non-believers!!!买是的, 有叫着Jesus!!!和Belive买否的, 有叫着a goldmine买了18.1K的否的, 俨然全是乐子人

如果这时候我买入, 到gta6发售的时候 能赚翻倍

但是我回头看了眼规则, 在polymarket的页面上的描述写的很简单, 只有一句This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US., 但是点到oracle的UMA, 有一份详细的说明:

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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources. res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5

String
q: title: Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?, description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources. res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5

其中有一句If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50, 即如果到2026年8月份, gta6没发售, 耶稣也没再临, 那么所有人在这个盘上投的钱都原路返回. 而gta6的发售时间已经宣布在2026年11月了, 所以很多人都来当乐子人, 买是了

目前是五五开, 买是和买否的钱各占一半, 但估计这个乐子再发酵发酵 会变成买是的一边倒了(

我为什么不信任Polymarket

polymarket的Deposit是将自己的虚拟币转到Polymarket Wallet, deposit之后 才能拿着放在polymarket的币去参与预测

从MetaMask往polymarket进行deposit的时候, 提示是往0xf70da97812CB96acDF810712Aa562db8dfA3dbEF这个钱包转账, 在以太坊搜了一下这个钱包, 发现这个钱包是一个Unverified Smart Contract, 即 这个智能合约没有公开它的源代码, 或者没有在区块链浏览器上验证其公开的代码与部署的代码一致, 这个是我不信任他的主要原因, polymarket平台完全可以把我deposit了的钱拿走跑路

为耶稣再临买是的人的心态

抛开上面的this market will resolve to 50-50不谈, 在6月份的时候 在gta6之前买是的钱有14%, 在2025年内买是的钱有2.8%, 这些也是有点好玩的, 不知道他们为啥真的会买是

有可能是为了博冷门, 但是在这个上面博冷门显然不太聪明

其实, 对于基督徒来说, 耶稣再临的具体时间是无人知晓的, 是上帝的秘密. 一个虔诚的基督徒不应该去为一个具体的时间下注, 但是会去做一个信念的表达, 表达自己对圣经的虔诚. 但是这个信念表达, 在我看来 估计没有下面这项占比大

还是乐子人. 把gta6和耶稣再临这俩事放在一起, 本身就非常喜感了, 我刚看到这个的时候也是一边叫这什么东西 一边笑了半天, 有时候人就是喜欢这样整活, 为参与进一个meme付费